Ensemble-based uncertainty estimates are denoted by ☑ σ.
The ensemble mean (which is the best estimate provided by the approach) fits independent data well, and a broad agreement between the spatial distribution of model–data differences and the ensemble standard deviation (which is our model uncertainty estimate) is seen. Fluxes and associated uncertainty are computed from an ensemble-based reconstruction of CO 2 sea surface partial pressure ( pCO 2) maps trained with gridded data from the Surface Ocean CO 2 Atlas v2020 database. We have estimated global air–sea CO 2 fluxes ( fgCO 2) from the open ocean to coastal seas.
